General Info

Event: AFC Championship Game 2025
Date & Time: January 26, 2025, 6:30 PM EST
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Broadcast: CBS and Paramount Plus
Betting Lines: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5, Over/Under 47.5
Moneyline: Chiefs (-125), Bills (+105)

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have showcased a strong offensive and defensive performance throughout the season. Josh Allen, having led his team to victory in crucial games, demonstrates a strong passing and rushing threat. He’s particularly effective when escaping pressure, which will be crucial against the Chiefs’ aggressive pass rush. The Bills’ running game, powered by James Cook, has also been formidable, especially against top defenses. This versatility on offense could be key in exploiting the Chiefs’ run defense vulnerabilities.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs rely heavily on Patrick Mahomes to carry the offense, often making up for their lackluster run game. Mahomes’ ability to create plays under pressure will be vital, especially given Buffalo’s aggressive defensive strategy. The Chiefs’ defense, while strong against the run, will face a tough challenge against Buffalo’s balanced attack. Their ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers could turn the game in their favor, especially with their high blitz rate and knockdowns being significant factors.

Favorite Picks

• Over 47.5 Total Points: Both teams have potent offenses capable of scoring quickly and in large amounts. This game, given its high stakes and the offensive talents like Allen and Mahomes, is likely to be a high-scoring affair.

• Josh Allen Over on Rushing Yards: Allen’s mobility and the Chiefs’ recent struggles against the run suggest he could have a significant impact on the ground. His ability to extend plays with his legs gives him a good chance to surpass his rushing yards average.

• Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown: Kelce remains a top target in the red zone for Mahomes. Given the expected tight coverage and high-pressure game scenario, his knack for finding gaps in critical situations makes him a likely candidate to score.

This matchup promises to be an exciting contest with key battles in the trenches and at the quarterback position, likely determining the path to the Super Bowl.